Optimistic signs for coming season’s red meat trade

After some harrowing experiences last season for the meat industry, both processors and farmers, 12 months on things are looking up. This sense of optimism hasn’t yet been reflected in prices from the meat companies, but statements from those in the know strike a perceptibly more positive note, writes industry commentator Allan Barber.

Last year, the lamb kill was down by a million, there was drought in significant livestock areas, the dollar was too high and so was the procurement price for lamb. While beef remained relatively unaffected by the hype, the price really not changing much in a year, sheepmeat was a completely different story. Driven by the unholy combination of scarcity and tight shipping deadlines for the Christmas trade, the procurement price hit $8 a kilo and struggled to get down from that level.

The net result was too many buyers chasing too few lambs which were also allowed to put on too much weight. The export markets got a severe dose of indigestion and inevitably inventories built up fast on both sides of the world. All this time, the New Zealand dollar stayed obstinately high.

We will find out in November how badly this set of circumstances affected the profit and balance sheet performance of the meat exporters, although Blue Sky’s result to the end of March gave a pretty good indication of the effect of the first six months of the season.

Farmers won’t be as unhappy as the processors and exporters because they received more for their stock than it was worth and, although the lamb price has now dropped from $150 to below $100, this is still better than in many previous years. According to Keith Cooper in Silver Fern Farms’ (SFF) news release last week, he predicts the price will bottom out at about $4.80 per kilo after Christmas, equivalent to $90 for an 18.75 kg lamb. It will then rebuild to $5.80 or $109 by this time next year. Cooper has also said last year’s pricing got way out of kilter and won’t happen again this year.

Cooper’s optimism is based on favourable European buyer response in the last couple of weeks, culminating in the European food fair at SIAL in Paris last weekend. UK supermarket chains also seem to be positive about the forthcoming chilled New Zealand lamb season which starts with Christmas and continues until British lamb starts to appear in the chillers after Easter.

SFF’s news release provided an interesting, if slightly puzzling, piece of information which stated that Marks & Spencer had awarded their new contract for chilled lamb to Alliance, having dealt exclusively with SFF for five years, because “we could not offer Organic lamb to M&S.” As far as I can understand, and from memory, M&S have always insisted on knowing where their lamb came from, eventually insisting on identifying the lambs’ farms of origin and traceability, but organics have never been a requirement in the past.

Cooper subsequently confirmed to me that the M&S tender specified a proportion of organic supply as part of the supply which SFF couldn’t guarantee to fulfil.

Alliance suggested that it was not required to supply certified organic lamb under its new contract, although all suppliers involved belong to the company’s Hoofprint programme which measures their carbon footprint. In fact, it’s hard to see how enough organic lamb could be available, especially in the pre-Christmas period, while there is little evidence the UK supermarkets are willing to pay a sufficient premium for organic supply.

In contrast, beef prices appear set to continue stable, underpinned by drought conditions which have affected feed supply and cost in the USA; however, any weakness in the New Zealand dollar would inevitably flow through to better livestock prices, much as meat companies might want to hang onto any bonus they receive.

I imagine meat exporters will be keen to put what was reasonably torrid 2011/12 season behind them and bed in the capacity changes they have decided on, so their new season’s performance can benefit. Sheep farmers can’t aspire to the $150 lamb, but they can expect more certainty and consistency on which to base their farm business.

This article has also appeared at www.interest.co.nz.

The Kiwi dollar will rise further against the greenback

Bank of New Zealand economist Tony Alexander wrote an excellent piece this week and made some interesting observations that he says are important for exporters to understand as they struggle with a high New Zealand dollar. He says the Kiwi dollar is going to rise further against the greenback. He explains his thinking in a cutout from the BNZ’s Weekly Overview.

Production boom confirmed by MPI

The production boom, alluded to by several at the Red Meat Sector Conference, has been confirmed in the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI)’s latest primary industry statistics released today. They show increased production of beef and sheepmeat, corresponding with growth in the export volumes for the meats, but falls in export revenue earned from lamb and venison.

Primary Industries Production and Trade‘ for the March quarter 2012 is the first release of a new combined primary industry quarterly report, comprising production and trade statistics for the meat, dairy, wool, forestry and seafood industries. It replaces separate quarterly reports for forestry and seafood that were previously released by the Ministry.

The report shows that the primary sector continued to be an economic driver, with total primary sector exports accounting for 71 percent of all merchandise exports in the year to March 2012.

MPI reports favourable climatic conditions led to a continuation of better-than-usual pasture growth during the March 2012 quarter. As a result, farmers achieved near-record carcase weights for slaughtered livestock and an 11.5 percent increase in milk solids’ production, compared with the same quarter in 2011.

However, the stronger New Zealand dollar coupled with easing international dairy prices meant that overall primary sector export revenue for the quarter was down 2.4 percent on the previous year, at $8.3 billion.

At the same time, total export revenue for the year to March 2012 was up 6.2 percent on the previous year at $32.3 billion.

In the year to the end of March 2012, exports of New Zealand’s beef and veal, lamb and mutton, venison and other meats, earned revenue of $5.6 billion, while hides, leather and dressed skins added a further $591 million to the export pot. This made a total of $6.233 billion, accounting for 13.6 percent of total NZ merchandise exports.

According to the report, beef production increased by 1.4 percent in the March 2012 quarter (compared with the March 2011 quarter), due to increased carcase weights, the highest since 2006. This was despite lower adult cattle slaughter numbers. Lamb production was up 2.4 percent because of increased slaughter numbers and a record average carcase weight of 17.6 kg.

The volume of beef and veal exported increased 1.3 percent to 98,450 tonnes in the March quarter, in the March quarter, while export value decreased 4.5 percent to $570 million because of the strong New Zealand dollar. Beef and veal exports to New Zealand’s major export market, the US, increased 9.3 percent by volume and 5.3 percent by value because of stronger demand.

Export volumes of lamb increased 4.7 percent to 79,000 tonnes, while export values decreased 1.3 percent to $722 million. Lamb exports to New Zealand’s main market, the European Union, decreased 9.1 percent by volume and 9.6 percent by value, which the report says was due to a decrease in frozen export volumes and increased export sales to China and OPEC.

Revenue earned from venison exports fell slightly by 0.4 percent at the end of March 2012, compared to the previous year, though volume had dropped by 4.3 percent.

A pdf copy of the report can be downloaded by clicking the link below or at the MPI website (search on ‘Primary Industries Production and Trade’).

MPI-Prod&Trade-March2012 quarter

Export meat price fall confirmed, but temporary

A fall in merchandise export prices for meat products has been confirmed by Statistics New Zealand in its latest figures comparing the March 2012 quarter against December 2011. However, this is expected by some to be temporary and export prices should improve later this year.

Overall, merchandise export prices fell by 3.8 percent in the same quarter, reflecting a 5.5 percent appreciation of the New Zealand dollar (according to the Reserve Bank’s trade weighted average). Amongst the falls for major commodity groups, prices for meat products (especially lamb), which accounted for 12 percent of exports, were down by 3.6 percent in the quarter, while other price falls were recorded for dairy (-5.6 percent) and forestry (-4.2 percent) products.

New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices) fell by 2.3 percent in the March 2012 quarter when compared with December 2011 – the third consecutive quarterly decrease since the terms of trade peaked in the June 2011 quarter, Statistics NZ says.

Looking at the wider market implications, Westpac’s senior economist Anne Boniface says the  data broadly confirms Westpac’s understanding of the NZ economy and on its own won’t change the outlook for the Reserve Bank. “Nonetheless, export prospects are certainly dimming this year. But while acknowledging the near–term weakness in commodity prices and its impact on the NZ economy, we must keep the recent moves in perspective – the terms of trade remains 10 percent above its average levels of the last decade,” she says, adding that current weakness is expected to be cyclical rather than structural. “By the final quarter of this year, stimulatory policies by authorities in China should be starting to gain traction, boosting growth and demand for commodities. Consequently, we expect to see commodity prices stabilise and start to improve.”

Boniface remains firmly optimistic about prospects for New Zealand export prices over a longer horizon, she says.

Great pastoral conditions along with continuing good prices

Photo: Courtesy B+LNZ

Beef + Lamb NZ’s mid-season update for the sheep and beef sector reports that export receipts estimated at $6.6 billion hold at last year’s level. Last year, export receipts for the sector were up 15 percent.

Expectations are for a small lift in export volumes and continued good prices relative to recent years. This will be moderated by the strength of the New Zealand dollar, particularly against the Euro and British pound.

The report contained few surprises for B+LNZ Economic Service director Rob Davison, who says it’s rare for such good pastoral conditions and international prices  to align. Lamb prices are expected to average at $115 a head, slightly down on 2010-2011’s high. Offshore prices are expected to remain at good levels, though the stronger NZ dollar against the pound softens the price received here. The recent strengthening of the NZ dollar against its US counterpart is also a concern, Davison says.

Global mutton supplies remain tight, while beef exports are expected to lift in the 2011-2012 season which ends in June.