Global meat production and consumption curbed

A new United States report looks at how disease and drought have curbed global meat production and consumption, notes shifts in geographical areas of production, calls for lowering individual meat consumption and for meat production to be “reconnected to the land and its natural carrying capacity”.

Global meat production rose to 270 million tonnes (297 million short US tons) in 2011, an increase of 0.8 percent over 2010 levels, and is projected to reach 270 million tonnes (302 million tons) by the end of 2012, according to new research conducted by the Washington DC-based Worldwatch Institute’s Nourishing the Planet project (www.worldwatch.org) for the Institute’s Vital Signs Online service.

In comparison, the report shows that meat production rose 2.6 percent in 2010 and has risen 20 percent since 2001. Record drought in the U.S. Midwest, animal disease outbreaks, and rising prices of livestock feed all contributed to 2011 and 2012′s lower rise in production, write report authors Danielle Nierenberg and Laura Reynolds.

Also bucking a decades-long trend, meat consumption decreased slightly worldwide in 2011, from 42.5 kilograms (kg) per person in 2010 to 42.3 kg, the authors note. Since 1995, however, per capita meat consumption has increased 15 percent overall; in developing countries, it increased 25 percent during this time, whereas in industrialised countries it increased just two percent. Although the disparity between meat consumption in developing and industrialised countries is shrinking, it remains high: the average person in a developing country ate 32.3 kg of meat in 2011, whereas in industrialised countries people ate 78.9 kg on average.

Pork was the most popular meat in 2011, accounting for 37 percent of both meat production and consumption, at 99 million tonnes (109 million tons), the report notes. This was followed closely by poultry meat, with 92 million tonnes (101 million tons) produced. Yet pork production decreased 0.8 percent from 2010, whereas poultry meat production rose three percent, making it likely that poultry will become the most-produced meat in the next few years.

The report also says that production of both beef and sheepmeat stagnated between 2010 and 2011, at 61 million and 12 million tonnes (67 million and 13 million tons), respectively

.A breakdown of meat production by geographic region reveals the dramatic shift in centres of production from industrialised to developing countries over the last decade. “In 2000, for example, North America led the world in beef production, at 12 million tonnes (13 million tons), while South America produced 11 million tonnes (12 million tons) and Asia 9.1 million tonnes (10 million tons). By 2011, North America had lowered its beef output by 180,000 tonnes (200,000 tons) and was overtaken by both South America and Asia, which produced 14 million  and 15 million tonnes (15 million and 17 million tons), respectively.”

The United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO) puts the slowdown in growth in industrial countries to rising production costs, stagnating domestic meat consumption and competition from developing countries.

Widespread and intense drought in China, Russia, the US and the Horn of Africa contributed to lower meat production—-and higher prices—-in 2010 and 2011. The combination of high prices for meat products and outbreaks of new and recurring zoonotic diseases – those transmitted between animals and humans – in 2011 curtailed global meat consumption.  In 2011 alone, foot-and-mouth disease was detected in Paraguay, African swine fever in Russia, classical swine fever in Mexico, and avian influenza (H5N1) throughout Asia. According to a 2012 report by the International Livestock Research Institute, zoonoses cause around 2.7 million human deaths each year, and approximately 75 percent of all emerging infectious diseases now originate in animals or animal products.

Many zoonotic disease outbreaks can be traced to concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs), also known as factory farms. These systems now account for 72 percent of poultry production, 43 percent of egg production, and 55 percent of pork production worldwide.

“Factory farming systems contribute to disease outbreaks in several ways,” says Danielle Nierenberg, report co-author and Worldwatch’s Nourishing the Planet project director. “They keep animals in cramped and often unsanitary quarters, providing a breeding ground for diseases; they feed animals grain-heavy diets that lack the nutrients needed to fight off disease and illness; and many CAFOs feed animals antibiotics as a preventative rather than a therapeutic measure, causing the animals—-and the humans who consume them—-to develop resistance to antibiotics.”

But not all livestock are reared in industrial or mechanised environments. Nearly one billion people living on less than US$2 a day depend to some extent on livestock and many of these people are raising animals in the same ways that their ancestors did.

“Lowering individual meat consumption would alleviate the pressure to produce more and more meat for lower and lower prices, using rapidly dwindling natural resources,” say Nierenberg and Reynolds. “Reconnecting meat production to the land and its natural carrying capacity, as well as reducing meat consumption, can thus greatly improve both public and environmental health.”

Further highlights from the report:

  • Over the last decade, meat production grew nearly 26 percent in Asia, 28 percent in Africa and 32 percent in South America.
  • In 2012, drought and corn crop failures continue throughout the United States, causing the U.S. Department of Agriculture to estimate that by 2013, beef will cost 4-5 percent more than in 2010, pork 2.5-3.5 percent more, and poultry 3-4 percent more.

A full copy of the report can be purchased here.

 

Global meat prices to surge

Global meat prices could face a surge next year, bringing mixed blessings for New Zealand’s meat exporters and producers, and potentially bad news for consumers around the world.

The main concern is the severe drought in the US – the worst for half a century – which has caused US wheat, corn and soyabean crops to fail. At the same time, adverse weather conditions are also said to be affecting grain harvests in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Responding to the shortages, grain prices have surged.

This is good news for New Zealand’s arable farmers – recent figures released by the Ministry of Primary Industries shows that arable farm profit has risen by 136 percent on the previous poor season and forward contract prices for wheat and barley have been going up in recent months because of the US drought.

However, the higher grain prices are impacting on feed prices and will, ultimately, force up downstream prices of foods dependent on grain, including grain-fed meats, in particular beef, poultry and pork. This is the bad news for consumers around the world, with huge numbers potentially finding some foods out of their reach financially, and causing concern for governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

Speaking at the Red Meat Sector Conference in July, GIRA’s Richard Brown had pointed to the fact that global feed prices were at that point already trending higher “with almost the opposite weather conditions to 2011 in the Northern Hemisphere”. He said that this was leading to producer caution around the world.

Now, as supplies dwindle further, US farmers are killing off stock they cannot feed in drought ravaged areas – according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s US Drought Monitor, 63 percent of the nation’s hay acreage and 72 percent of the cattle acreage is in areas experiencing drought.

US beef is being bought, frozen and stored for later use. meatpoultry.com reports that the US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) is procuring US$100 million worth of supplies of meat poultry and fish, to provide drought relief for the US agriculture industry. These supplies will be stored and distributed to American troops around the world, including Afghanistan.

B+LNZ Ltd chairman Mike Petersen reports that US corn yields are being revised down daily and, while there is good confidence in the future of beef, returns generally are going to be dampened in the short-term.

“Reports are predicting an increased flow of US beef on the markets through November and December as a result, but for prices to increase strongly by January with dwindling supplies and the effects of sharply increased grain prices for feedlots,” he says.

Grass-fed beef will not face higher grain input costs

The good news for New Zealand meat exporters is that, with this country’s grass-fed production system, the sector will not face these higher grain input costs, says Meat Industry Association (MIA) chief executive Tim Ritchie.

“All other things being equal, the predicted – grain induced – rising tide of prices later this year should benefit New Zealand at least in the short-term.”

Of more concern to Ritchie and meat exporters are the structural changes to the global meat system, as in recent years China has turned to become a net importer of grain, as opposed to a net exporter.

Ultimately though, it’s New Zealand meat consumers in markets overseas, such as those facing economic pressure in Europe and where demand is expanding such as in Asia, who will make or break the fortunes of the industry.

“It all comes down to the person on the street being more careful with their discretionary dollar,” he says. That, in turn, reinforces the need for the meat industry to continue to develop market-driven products that fit with the needs of the targeted consumer.

“The ‘new norm’ for meat price prediction is ‘volatility’, which makes short-term predictions of price and demand dangerous,” says Ritchie.

“However, the long-term forecast is for meat demand to grow, particularly in Asia.”

Trading with Russia

Exporters trading with Russia will be focusing on Vladivostok as trade talks take place there next week.

A delegation of business people is participating in the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) Chief Executive Summit and related meetings in Vladivostock, Russia, during the week of 3 September, according to the NZ International Business Forum (NZIBF).

“The Vladivostock meeting takes place as Russia takes up its long-awaited and welcome entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and as further progress is made to build the foundations for future growth in the Asia-Pacific region,” says NZIBF executive director Stephen Jacobi.

“New Zealand has a major stake in the future economic success of the Economic APEC region which takes over 70 percent of our exports. Negotiations now underway amongst eleven APEC economies to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are aimed at eliminating trade barriers, reducing the cost and complexity of doing business and providing a pathway to a future Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). New Zealand is also negotiating a free trade agreement with the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.”

Russia’s 2012 chairmanship in APEC is promoting the domestic economy’s organic integration into the system of economic ties in the Asia Pacific Region (APR) in the interests of modernisation- and innovation-driven economic development, primarily in Siberia and the Russian Far East.

The fourth and final meeting this year of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) will take place in Vladivostock 3-6 September. ABAC members will present their views and recommendations directly to APEC Economic Leaders, including Prime Minister John Key, on 8 September. They will be joined at the APEC CEO Summit 7-8 September by several New Zealand chief executives.

This year’s Summit – under the theme Addressing Challenges. Expanding Possibilities. – will explore how business can contribute to future prosperity in the region through trade liberalisation, safe food and water supply, infrastructure development, the fostering of innovation and new transportation routes.

In the year ending December 2011, Russia was 14th on the list of New Zealand’s top trading partners. The country imported $44 million (fob) worth of New Zealand sheepmeat and about $11 million worth of frozen New Zealand beef.

New Zealand’s ‘liquid gold’

Water is also on the mind of our politicians. Water – New Zealand’s ‘liquid gold’ – is possibly New Zealand’s biggest opportunity to grow the productive part of our economy, according to the Minister for Primary Industries.

David Carter was speaking to the Federated Farmers’ annual conference last week, when he talked about New Zealand playing to its strengths.

“We can’t go past our abundance of water or New Zealand’s ‘liquid gold’.”

Despite difficult fiscal conditions, he pointed to the Government’s fronting with $35 million for the Irrigation Acceleration Fund to 50:50 fund the feasibility studies of schemes around New Zealand.

“The Government’s also committed $400 million through the Future Investment Fund to invest as a cornerstone shareholder in large water storage and irrigation schemes.

“We are making progress, particularly in Hawke’s Bay, Canterbury and Otago, but achieving consensus of all the various stakeholders means progress is slower than I would like.”

Most important aspect

David Carter, NZ Primary Industries MinisterIn his speech, the primary sector was referred to as “the most important aspect driving our economy forward.

“The healthy performance across most of the primary sectors has enabled our economy to weather the storms of the global financial crisis and, locally, the Canterbury earthquakes,” he said, pointing to the fact that the primary sector now makes up 71 percent of New Zealand’s total merchandise export trade.

Carter referred to the EU’s “major challenges” and the “subdued” US, which in the past would have had a huge impact on New Zealand. New Zealand is fortunate to have repositioned itself so significantly with Asia, he said.

“We are well on the way to realising the Prime Minister’s ambition, which is shared by China’s leaders, to double our bilateral trade to $20 billion by 2015. The government’s trade agenda, led by Tim Groser, has the potential to deliver more opportunities to primary producers and exporters.”

Talks with eight other Trans-Pacific Partnership countries, including new partners Mexico and Canada, and also Russia, India, South Korea and the Gulf States “and you sense the size of the potential prize,” he told delegates.

The Minister had just returned from Russia, with which free trade negotiations are progressing. Two-way trade is currently worth about $700 million. “But, if a deal is reached, it will be Russia’s first international trade deal and our exports will grow significantly,” he said.

Highly regarded

“One of the things that was reinforced to me during my trip was how highly regarded New Zealand is internationally. We are renowned as producers of some of the best food in the world, at a time when food security is the world’s greatest challenge.”

The Minister also referred to the importance of biosecurity, local government reform, rural broadband initiatives and a new animal welfare toolkit for farmers being launched by the Ministry for Primary Industries in his speech.

 

Carter to Russia and US

David Carter, NZ Primary Industries MinisterPrimary Industries Minister David Carter is representing New Zealand at the APEC Food Security Ministerial meeting in Russia next week and will also travel to the US for a round of high level agriculture meetings.

The APEC meeting in Kazan will focus on a range of issues concerning agricultural productivity, including longer-term investment in sustainable agriculture and the role of international trade in improving food security.

“As a leading food exporter with world-class expertise in agricultural production, New Zealand knows only too well the importance of global food security,” Carter says.

“To this end, New Zealand has taken an active role in promoting multi-country cooperation such as through the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases. We also continue to promote a rules-based trading system to ensure consumers have access to a reliable food supply.”

The Minister will travel to Washington DC to meet with a number of political agriculture leaders and industry representatives.

“These meetings will further strengthen the New Zealand-US bilateral relationship and give our two countries the opportunity to discuss issues such as the positive collaboration on research into livestock-generated greenhouse gas emissions,” he says.

“I also look forward to discussing with my US counterpart and others the mutual benefits that will be realised through the high quality Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement currently under negotiation.”

The Minister will also make a stop in Hong Kong to address an event showcasing New Zealand food and wines.