Optimistic signs for coming season’s red meat trade

After some harrowing experiences last season for the meat industry, both processors and farmers, 12 months on things are looking up. This sense of optimism hasn’t yet been reflected in prices from the meat companies, but statements from those in the know strike a perceptibly more positive note, writes industry commentator Allan Barber.

Last year, the lamb kill was down by a million, there was drought in significant livestock areas, the dollar was too high and so was the procurement price for lamb. While beef remained relatively unaffected by the hype, the price really not changing much in a year, sheepmeat was a completely different story. Driven by the unholy combination of scarcity and tight shipping deadlines for the Christmas trade, the procurement price hit $8 a kilo and struggled to get down from that level.

The net result was too many buyers chasing too few lambs which were also allowed to put on too much weight. The export markets got a severe dose of indigestion and inevitably inventories built up fast on both sides of the world. All this time, the New Zealand dollar stayed obstinately high.

We will find out in November how badly this set of circumstances affected the profit and balance sheet performance of the meat exporters, although Blue Sky’s result to the end of March gave a pretty good indication of the effect of the first six months of the season.

Farmers won’t be as unhappy as the processors and exporters because they received more for their stock than it was worth and, although the lamb price has now dropped from $150 to below $100, this is still better than in many previous years. According to Keith Cooper in Silver Fern Farms’ (SFF) news release last week, he predicts the price will bottom out at about $4.80 per kilo after Christmas, equivalent to $90 for an 18.75 kg lamb. It will then rebuild to $5.80 or $109 by this time next year. Cooper has also said last year’s pricing got way out of kilter and won’t happen again this year.

Cooper’s optimism is based on favourable European buyer response in the last couple of weeks, culminating in the European food fair at SIAL in Paris last weekend. UK supermarket chains also seem to be positive about the forthcoming chilled New Zealand lamb season which starts with Christmas and continues until British lamb starts to appear in the chillers after Easter.

SFF’s news release provided an interesting, if slightly puzzling, piece of information which stated that Marks & Spencer had awarded their new contract for chilled lamb to Alliance, having dealt exclusively with SFF for five years, because “we could not offer Organic lamb to M&S.” As far as I can understand, and from memory, M&S have always insisted on knowing where their lamb came from, eventually insisting on identifying the lambs’ farms of origin and traceability, but organics have never been a requirement in the past.

Cooper subsequently confirmed to me that the M&S tender specified a proportion of organic supply as part of the supply which SFF couldn’t guarantee to fulfil.

Alliance suggested that it was not required to supply certified organic lamb under its new contract, although all suppliers involved belong to the company’s Hoofprint programme which measures their carbon footprint. In fact, it’s hard to see how enough organic lamb could be available, especially in the pre-Christmas period, while there is little evidence the UK supermarkets are willing to pay a sufficient premium for organic supply.

In contrast, beef prices appear set to continue stable, underpinned by drought conditions which have affected feed supply and cost in the USA; however, any weakness in the New Zealand dollar would inevitably flow through to better livestock prices, much as meat companies might want to hang onto any bonus they receive.

I imagine meat exporters will be keen to put what was reasonably torrid 2011/12 season behind them and bed in the capacity changes they have decided on, so their new season’s performance can benefit. Sheep farmers can’t aspire to the $150 lamb, but they can expect more certainty and consistency on which to base their farm business.

This article has also appeared at www.interest.co.nz.

Organic foods not more nutritious, says study

The argument that organic food, including meat, is more nutritious than conventionally grown food has been cast doubt on by new research, based on an analysis of several hundred studies.

The study by Dr Crystal Smith Spangler and others, published in Annals of Internal Medicine (4 Sept), is the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date of existing studies comparing organic and conventional foods. Researchers analysed 237 separate studies which compared the organic foods to conventionally grown foods. They did not find strong evidence that organic foods are more nutritious or carry fewer health risks than conventional alternatives, though consumption of organic foods can reduce the risk of pesticide exposure.

As for what the findings mean for consumers, the researchers said their aim is to educate people, not to discourage them from making organic purchases. “If you look beyond health effects, there are plenty of other reasons to buy organic instead of conventional,” noted lead researcher Dena Bravata, from Standford University. She listed taste preferences and concerns about the effects of conventional farming practices on the environment and animal welfare as some of the reasons people choose organic products.

Professor Alan Dangour of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says like a review he and others conducted in 2009, this latest study “again demonstrates there are no important differences in nutrient content between organic and conventionally produced foods.” It also finds no evidence that organic foods are healthier than conventionally produced foods, he adds.

Organic driven by risk aversion

The majority of people who eat organic food are driven by risk aversion not nutritional superiority, believes Liza Oates, a PhD researcher into the health effects of organic diets and course coordinator of Food as Medicine, Wellness and Complementary and Alternative Medicine for the Master of Wellness Programme at RMIT University in Melbourne.

“Our research shows organic consumers are more interested in what’s not in their food – such as pesticides and antibiotics – than what is. Most also say that the environmental and social benefits of organic food play a key role in their decision to go organic.”

She points to US research that has shown that eating organic food has a dramatic effect on pesticide residues in children. “Substituting non-organic fruits and vegetables with organics for five days resulted in an almost complete reduction in organophosphate pesticide residues. It is this kind of benefit that many organic consumers are looking for when choosing to buy organic food,” says Oates.