Tag Archives: primary sector

Lower lamb prices expected, but firm for beef

Posted on by
Reply

MPI Situation and Outlook update December 2012New Zealand’s meat processors and farmers can expect lower lamb prices over the remainder of the 2012/2013 production season, while beef prices are expected to remain firm over the next two years, says the Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI).

Deteriorating global economic conditions are having a significant impact on returns for New Zealand’s primary produce, according to the MPI’s recently released half-year update to the annual Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report, which was published in June.

The update shows there has been strong pastoral production so far in the 2012/2013 season. “This is partly due to favourable climatic conditions during the previous season which left breeding stock in good condition and also ongoing expansion of the dairy herd,” says Chris Jones, manager of economic information and analysis for MPI’s sector policy division.

However, MPI reports the continuing economic slowdown, particularly in the traditional markets of the European Union, is causing weaker demand for some products such as lamb resulting in lower lamb prices. In addition, the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against most major trading currencies in recent months is having a dampening effect on farm-gate returns for primary produce.

In contrast, beef prices are expected to remain firm over the next two years, following a major drought in North America affecting production there.

As a result, primary sector export revenue for the year to June 2013 is forecast to be around $27.5 billion, down five percent on the previous year ($29.2 billion).

 

 

Primary growth coupled with energy efficiencies

Posted on by
Reply

Growth in the primary sector has been coupled with energy efficiencies, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Data from SNZ’s latest Energy Use Survey shows that overall energy use by the primary sector was almost 35,000 terajoules (TJ) in 2011 and one-third of businesses had energy saving technologies. Total energy use in this sector stayed steady in the last three years, while the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product rose nine percent.

The total energy used in the sector equates to enough diesel to make two million trips from Cape Reinga to Bluff in a medium-sized diesel car. “While this sounds like a lot, the primary sector actually uses a relatively small proportion of New Zealand’s total energy. It makes up less than 10 percent of total business energy use,” energy statistics manager Hamish Hill said.

Agriculture, the biggest industry in this sector, uses almost half the total energy. Diesel and electricity remain the main energy types. “Diesel is integral to our production of timber, livestock, and crops. This contrasts with the industrial and trade sector, which is more reliant on natural gas and other energy types, such as coal.”

This is the second time that energy use data has been collected for the primary sector. The New Zealand Energy Use Survey covers each of the primary, industrial and trade, and services sectors over a three-year period.

Ministry for Primary Industries’ Strategy 2030

Posted on by
Reply

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has set itself an ambitious strategy to 2030 with the subtitle ‘Growing and protecting New Zealand,’ writes Allan Barber.

In its introduction, the Ministry asks ‘Why this strategy?’ which it answers by saying a re-balancing of the economy towards more productive sources of growth is required and New Zealand must trade itself to greater growth and prosperity.

When one considers that 71 cents in every dollar of merchandise export earnings come from the primary sector, there are no prizes for guessing where most of this is expected to come from. The Government’s strategic growth agenda contains the goal of increasing the ratio of exports to GDP from 30 percent to 40 percent of GDP by 2025, so clearly agriculture will be expected to generate the majority of this increase.

MPI, which now incorporates the functions of MAF, as well as the Ministry of Fisheries and New Zealand Food Safety Authority, has a major role and responsibility for helping to achieve these goals. Having always believed that government agencies must provide the framework and environment within which business has to perform and achieve, it’s expecting too much of MPI and its strategy, if we believe that this will be easy.

Strategy 2030 contains two points of focus: first to ‘maximise export opportunities and improve sector productivity’ and second to ‘increase sustainable resource use, and protect from biological risk.’

Key strategies to achieve these are:

  • Partnering with the primary sectors to identify and seize opportunities for improved productivity and market returns;
  • Removing unnecessary barriers to trade and increasing our use of international standards to enhance value;
  • Encouraging and co-investing in industry innovation and adoption;
  • Identifying and managing risks to New Zealand’s natural resources;
  • Partnering innovative approaches to environmental challenges; and
  • Better understanding the challenges to sustainable use of New Zealand’s natural resources.

The Ministry’s approach will concentrate on enabling and partnering by cooperating, facilitating, providing information and tools, using a whole-of-government approach across the primary sector and connecting primary sectors with one another. A key aspect of this is to engage with Maori which MPI sees as a core obligation.

Before jumping to the conclusion that this obligation is yet another example of political correctness, which is tempting, one must realise that Maoridom has $10.6 billion invested in primary sector assets including 1.5 million hectares of land of which MPI says 80 percent is underutilised. This degree of underperformance certainly needs to be improved and will produce economic returns for both Maori and the country as a whole.

MPI’s structure to deliver its strategy consists of five branches across the whole operation: Policy, Standards, Verification and systems, Compliance and response, and Resource management and programmes. These five branches encapsulate the total range of activities which the Ministry undertakes. The ones with the highest profile are food safety, animal welfare and biosecurity, but these are just the tip of the iceberg.

MPI has responsibility for literally everything and everybody leaving and entering the country. It negotiates standards with the regulatory authorities of our trading partners; it establishes the systems and maintains surveillance to ensure compliance with these standards. It also develops and implements policies across the whole gamut of New Zealand’s agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture sectors.

It is staggering to reflect that in 1987 David Lange saw agriculture as a sunset industry with New Zealand’s future lying in becoming the Switzerland of the South Pacific.

Now more than ever, the primary sector is the engine of our economic growth. MPI’s core responsibilities of setting and applying systems and standards for food safety, animal welfare and biosecurity, while ensuring effective response to pest incursions and non-compliance, are absolutely fundamental to our future place in the world.

The Ministry has an enormous responsibility for ensuring the protection and security of our whole primary sector which is a critical part of our economic growth.

Provided it doesn’t lose its focus on the clearly defined essential outcomes listed in its strategy, this is how it will make its major contribution towards ensuring New Zealand’s future prosperity.

Allan is an agribusiness commentator with particular interest in the meat industry and has his own blog Barber’s Meaty Issues. This article also appears at interest.co.nz.

Business Growth Agenda a big stretch, says Barber

Posted on by
Reply

The Government’s Business Growth Agenda progress report on Building Export Markets specifies the target of increasing New Zealand’s exports from 30 percent today to 40 percent of GDP by 2025. It’s a big stretch, says meat industry commentator Allan Barber.

The progress report states that primary sector exports have outpaced the rest of the export sector, growing by half in real terms since 2000 at an average productivity growth rate of 2.1 percent per annum. To achieve the target of 40 percent of GDP, agriculture will have to maintain its growth rate for the next 13 years, while the rest of the economy must lift its game considerably. Manufacturing and services have been increasing by one percent a year and need to lift this to five percent over the coming decade, or alternatively agriculture will be required to expand further to bridge the gap.

This is an enormous challenge, equivalent to creating 250 more knowledge-intensive businesses creating $100 million from exports a year. The report cites Navman as an example of the type of business required. How many more like this can we think of? Not many, so it is highly improbable that these new businesses will emerge from areas totally unconnected with agriculture.

Primary sector exports will therefore have to increase by quite a bit more than the average of the past decade, if the target as a whole is to be reached.

Using a different report and set of figures the Riddet Institute in its recent Call to Arms report challenged the primary sector to treble its exports to $60 billion by 2025, equivalent to New Zealand’s total exports of goods and services today. However exports of $20 billion are only one third of the total. These figures emanate from the Government’s Economic Growth Agenda.

We can quibble with the different measurements and totals used to arrive at the conclusions (GDP, total exports, growth rates), but the fact remains, it’s one hell of a big stretch to see how to reach the target. The goal of the Boot Camp taking place at Stanford University this week is to see whether like-minded companies can develop the strategies required to bring agriculture up the value chain, enabling the sort of increase envisaged.

The question is whether the Government’s progress report on the activities of the Business Growth Agenda will contribute to the big goal and, if so, how significantly. It is a big ask, because it demands growth of between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent, depending on the economic growth path, compared with Treasury’s forecast for the next three years of 1.8 percent.

The report says with a degree of understatement that “to achieve our target will require a concerted effort to develop more internationally competitive businesses in both the commodity and high-value technology-based sectors.” This may be official speak for ‘we know we haven’t got a hope, but we have to start somewhere.’

The key planks of the export growth development strategy are: Delivering a Compelling New Zealand Story; Improving Access to International Markets; Increasing Value from Tourism; Making it Easier to Trade from New Zealand; Growing International Education; Helping Businesses Internationalise; and Strengthening High-Value Manufacturing and Services Exports.

The progress report finishes with a summary of the strategies under each of these headings and Progress Indicators listing detailed actions underpinning the strategies. There is an enormous amount of work going on, notably in trade negotiations, removal of red tape for business, trade missions into key markets and tourism developments such as SmartGate at the airport.

But all work on developing a compelling New Zealand story is listed as a new project which indicates one of the major problems encountered in lifting our exports as a percentage of GDP. There is no agreed brand image under which all New Zealand’s exports and tourism experiences are promoted. The meat industry’s main brand has for a long time been New Zealand Lamb which has been very successful, but a major complaint has been the competition in export markets between exporters. Apart from North America, cooperation has been seriously lacking.

Part of the problem has been the complete lack of a generic New Zealand brand image. Development of this with a believable and compelling story to back it is an absolute priority, because brands take a long time or a lot of money to gain awareness, probably both.

This progress report is the first of six with the other five to come being Innovation, Skilled and Safe Workplaces, Infrastructure, Natural Resources and Capital Markets. Obviously these other areas will play an important role in achieving the export goal.

The Government deserves credit for coming up with a coherent strategy, but it will have to generate a tremendous response from the private sector if the goal is to come close to being realised. Another challenge is the high proportion of SMEs in New Zealand which must be inspired to pursue the new business opportunities capable of converting them into large businesses with the requisite scale.

This article has also appeared at interest.co.nz.