PGP project suggests meat industry ready to co-operate, says Barber

Allan BarberYesterday’s announcement of the Red Meat PGP Collaboration Programme for Greater Farmer Profitability at a total investment of $65 million is fantastic news for the whole industry, says meat industry commentator Allan Barber. The key words are ‘collaboration’ and ‘farmer profitability’, he writes.

The first of these has usually been notable by its absence, while the second combination of words has only been evident at irregular intervals.

Half the funding will be made available from the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI)’s Primary Growth partnership fund, while 30 percent will come from farmers through Beef & Lamb New Zealand Ltd (B+LNZ) and Meat Board reserves and the balance from six meat companies, two banks and Deloitte.

B+LNZ’s contribution is contingent on levy paying farmers voting in support of the proposal at its annual meeting on 8 March. Although nothing is ever certain, it would be a shock if this support wasn’t forthcoming, because the programme represents a significant step towards fulfilling the objectives of the Red Meat Sector Strategy conducted by Deloitte and completed nearly two years ago.

The aim of the programme is to lift the performance of all farmers to match that of the best performers which was identified in the strategy as the best way of improving industry profitability. There is a significant gap between the top and bottom performers in farming methods and profitability. If this gap can be closed the gains for the sector and New Zealand are enormous.

The participation of the six meat processors – AFFCO, Alliance, ANZCO, Blue Sky, Progressive Meats and Silver Fern Farms – is as meaningful as it is welcome. These are the key sheepmeat processors which is recognition that it is the sheep meat sector in particular where the greatest gains are to be made. However, the focus behind the farm gate shouldn’t obscure the fact that there are substantial gains to be made from greater collaboration in the market place.

A striking aspect of yesterday’s press releases by Ministry of Primary Industries, B+LNZ, Alliance and Silver Fern Farms (SFF) was the difference in tone between the statements by the two meat companies and the enthusiasm with which Beef & Lamb is greeting the opportunity.

The tone of SFF’s press release was less than enthusiastic, emphasising the need for a levy vote in support before the programme could begin and the care taken to ensure this programme did not cut across SFF’s Farm IQ programme which was the first project out of the blocks.

In spite of a first sentence which confirmed SFF’s support for the collaboration programme, the main impression from the statement was that the company was a somewhat unwilling participant and would be guided by the farmers’ decision. If this happened not to be supportive, I was left with the feeling SFF would not be particularly upset.

In comparison with Keith Cooper’s guarded support for the programme, Alliance chief executive Grant Cuff was positively euphoric, stating:

“This new coordinated collaborative initiative will enhance the knowledge and capability in the sheep and beef sector and help improve farm performance, productivity and profitability.

“New Zealand can make significant gains in its export earnings by ensuring all parts of the value chain collaborate so suppliers are using the best available farm and business management practice and tools.

“This initiative is an important step in the implementation of the Red Meat Sector Strategy. We’re supportive of any steps to lift the industry’s game and improve on-farm profitability.”

After my recent call for a sheep meat strategy, I am cheered by this progress. Admittedly, results won’t happen immediately, but it provides an investment over several years during which industry participants will work together for the collective good.

This must be one of the best possible outcomes for an industry which is noted more for its divisiveness than its potential to cooperate in the interest of a better future for all the parties.

Allan Barber is a meat industry commentator who writes a number of columns on the topics. He has his own blog Barber’s Meaty Issues.

PGP programme being welcomed by industry

Grant Cuff, Alliance Group.The new PGP programme, Collaboration for Sustainable Growth, announced yesterday is being welcomed by the industry.

Leading meat processor and exporter Alliance Group has welcomed the initiative designed to improve farmer profitability.

Grant Cuff, chief executive of Alliance Group Limited, one of the founding organisations taking part in the initiative says the new co-ordinated collaborative initiative will enhance the knowledge and capability in the sheep and beef sector and help improve farm performance, productivity and profitability.

“New Zealand can make significant gains in its export earning by ensuring all parts of the value chain collaborate so suppliers are using the best available farm and business practice and tools,” he says, adding that the initiative is an important step in the implementation of the Red Meat Sector Strategy (RMSS). “We’re supportive of any steps to lift the industry’s game and improve on-farm profitability.”

Alliance Group is already implementing many of the RMSS recommendations “as we strive to improve sustainable profitability for the sector,” Cuff says.

Alliance Group has invested significantly in technologies such as Hoofprint, VIAscan and Central Progeny Test trials and research into sheepmeat eating quality, which all aim to assist suppliers to produce high quality livestock and improve farm productivity, he says.

Mike Petersen, B+LNZ Ltd chairman.Another programme partner Beef + Lamb NZ Ltd (B+LNZ)’s chairman Mike Petersen has also welcomed the initiative which he says “will be a huge boost for the sector and will accelerate progress in an increasingly collaborative approach across a range of issues that are important for sheep and beef farmers.”

B+LNZ has been working increasingly closely with meat processors in recent years through its joint venture market development programmes and collectively with processors and exporters via the Meat Industry Association (MIA). The Collaboration programme goes behind the farm gate to help improve productivity and profitability and addresses a number of the issues highlighted in the RMSS, developed by B+LNZ Ltd, the Meat Industry Association and the government in 2011.

Red meat industry to work together

Wayne McNee, MPI.The red meat industry has agreed to work together to promote and assist in the adoption of best practice by sheep and beef farmers, as part of a new $65 million dollar sector development project with Government co-funding.

Wayne McNee, director-general of the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI), has just approved a commitment of up to $32.4 million from MPI’s Primary Growth Partnership Fund (PGP) for the red meat sector’s new Collaboration for Sustainable Growth programme.

This seven-year programme will bring together a number of participants in New Zealand’s red meat sector including co-operatively owned and privately owned processing companies that together account for a substantial majority of New Zealand’s sheep and beef exports, two banks and Beef + Lamb New Zealand Ltd.

It aims to ensure that red meat producers consistently have access to and are able to effectively use the best-available farm and business management practices, by addressing gaps in technology transfer and ensuring stronger co-ordination between organisations and individuals working with farmers.

MPI Director General, Wayne McNee says the new PGP programme will transform the delivery of knowledge and capability within the sheep and beef sector.

“Importantly this is the most comprehensive collaboration of its type ever seen in the red meat sector, and the opportunities are very exciting. The Collaboration programme will build base capability, delivering benefits across the sector and aligned with other PGP programmes.”

The next step to establish this PGP programme is to develop the contract with the Crown and to seek farmer support for their portion of the investment. It is anticipated that once the required farmer and company approvals and contracts are in place programme delivery can begin, expected to be in the third quarter of this year.

Organisations presently in this initiative are: AFFCO, Alliance Group, ANZCO Foods, ANZ Bank, Beef + Lamb New Zealand, Blue Sky Meats, Deloitte, Progressive Meats, Rabobank and Silver Fern Farms. The programme is designed to be open, enabling others to invest. Participants will establish a formal partnership to run the Collaboration programme.

Chairman of the programme’s Steering Group, Dr Scott Champion says the Collaboration programme is built on the findings of the Red Meat Sector Strategy and will deliver significantly on the Strategy’s sector best-practice theme.

“This initiative is evidence that the industry is committed to delivering on the recommendations of the sector strategy. More industry collaboration is high on the list of Strategy actions, and so to have the red meat industry focused on supporting farmers and united in this programme is of major significance. Importantly, the Strategy also underlined the returns available to all farmers by lifting productivity and management towards that of the country’s highest performing farms.”

The PGP programme comprises several elements, including investigating how farmers prefer to receive and use new information and what drives their profitability, as well as benchmarking and integrating relevant databases. New tools, services and knowledge will be packaged and delivered in a range of ways by programme partners.

“With a new awareness of what drives farm profitability, the Collaboration programme will change the sector’s focus from one that is dominated by price to one focused on performance, productivity, profitability and the factors we can control,” Champion said.

“This investment will support the sector to better control its future and ensure confidence for continued investment.”

The Red Meat Sector Strategy was jointly developed by Beef + Lamb New Zealand and the Meat Industry Association, with funding support from the Government. It was released in May 2011.The Strategy identified a range of activities that, when implemented, will improve sector productivity and profitability, and provide greater certainty for participants.

 

Is this the year for a sheepmeat strategy, asks Barber?

Allan BarberIs this the year for a sheepmeat strategy, asks meat industry commentator Allan Barber in his latest column. The key question for the meat industry this year is whether anybody will make any money, he writes.

After last season when farmers enjoyed unprecedented procurement prices and the meat companies lost millions of dollars as a result, prices have headed south and look set to remain there for the foreseeable future.

Sheepmeat is the product most under threat with the traditional markets all showing serious signs of indigestion. As an example, a US importer has been reported as saying he has a year’s worth of inventory and can’t buy any more and neither is anyone else. This signals a major problem for middle cuts like lamb racks, while Europe isn’t exactly rushing to buy any product either.

This explains the amount of cheap sheepmeat available on our domestic market, although unfortunately local consumers have been turned off buying lamb as a standard part of their diet by last year’s high prices – no different from the rest of the world; and expecting New Zealand’s minute population to absorb any significant part of the oversupply is a bit like expecting Fiji to win the World Cup or the Black Caps to win the series in South Africa for that matter.

Beef may resist the worst of the price downturn because US demand remains steady against a backdrop of falling domestic cow numbers and consequently an increased share for imported beef. Asian demand will also remain firm, while New Zealand exporters may be able to pick up some of Australia’s market share, as Australian supply to the USA is anticipated to take the lion’s share of the increase there.

But even beef will continue to struggle under the impact of our dollar which is set obstinately at about 84 US cents with the greenback unlikely to strengthen at all, unless Congress can agree on a fiscal solution to the enormous American debt problem. In spite of averting the fall over the fiscal cliff, the US really hasn’t solved its long-term problem, merely postponed a decision.

The main difficulty for sheepmeat is the amount of inventory held by wholesalers and exporters which is waiting to be sold into a market which doesn’t need it and, even if it did, can’t afford to pay a price for it which will compensate for our exchange rate sitting at 52p and 0.63 Euro. This inventory problem will only be exacerbated by another season’s production which will hit its peak in less than three months.

If my pessimistic assessment is even only half correct, 2013 bears all the signs of an extremely difficult season for all participants in the sector. MPI’s forecast for farm incomes, down on last year, is still reasonably positive at least in historical terms, but it must come under pressure from any further price drops or cost increases. There is most unlikely to be any spare cash around.

After the beating taken last season by the processors, shown factually in the annual accounts of Silver Fern Farms, Alliance and Blue Sky Meats, and by implication in the results of the others, all the meat companies will be under pressure to get back into the black. The only way they can achieve this is to reduce procurement costs, increase operational efficiencies and sell inventory into the market, preferably with a profit margin on what it cost them.

This last one will be by far the hardest. There is already plenty of evidence of product being offered at very competitive, or silly, prices in spite of Keith Cooper’s claim before Christmas that working capital tied up in inventory is ‘good’ debt because it restrains companies from dumping product. Now if that isn’t a case of making a virtue out of necessity, I don’t know what is.

Logically if there is an inventory problem, it makes sense to quit it at the going rate rather than waiting for the market to recover by which time there will be more inventory in the freezer tying up more working capital.

The meat industry is becoming increasingly a division between sheep (very hard to make a consistent profit) and beef (quite or extremely profitable, mostly because of the livestock sourced from the dairy industry). Those companies which specialise in beef from dairy regions, notably Greenlea and Universal, appear to be very profitable without interference from the volatility of sheepmeat pricing.

Alliance has traditionally been the outstanding performer among the processors with a commitment to the sheep industry. Silver Fern Farms has reinvented itself as a company with a significant beef business which has reduced its vulnerability. But as last season’s results showed, the sheepmeat business placed serious pressure on their balance sheets which will inevitably continue throughout this year.

This may be the year when some serious strategic thinking is applied to finding a viable industry model for sheepmeat alone, instead of trying to find a single solution for the meat industry as a whole.

This column has appeared in NZ Farmers Weekly and interest.co.nz and is reproduced here with permission. Allan also has his own blog Barber’s Meaty Issues.

 

Meat companies high debt levels must concern the banks

New Zealand meat companies’ high debt levels, must be of concern to the banks, says meat industry commentator Allan Barber.

Silver Fern Farms (SFF) is operating on a three month extension to its bank facility which expired at the end of September, but reported current (expiring within 12 months) loans of $316.7 million at the end of its 2012 financial year, Barber writes.

In its last published annual accounts to September 2011, ANZCO had current and non-current loans of $220 million which must surely have increased in the very challenging 2012 year. Lastly at the end of September Alliance had $331.8 million of assets and non-current loans of $196.1 million which are clearly not causing any immediate concern.

The two big co-operatives published their annual reports last week and neither makes pretty reading. Both results benefited from a large tax loss which, to be effective, must of course be offset eventually by profits.

Alliance’s financial position was fully flagged in its announcement of a $50.8 million post tax loss including the $19.4 million write down of its Mataura sheep processing unit, which was actually a pre-tax loss of $70.6 million before tax credits. Its balance sheet with 51 percent equity ratio is still strong, although not nearly as strong as twenty four or even twelve months earlier.

SFF had already announced an after-tax loss of $32.2 million which was also, in reality, a loss of $44.2 million pre-tax, which included no restructuring costs. Debt rose during the year from $111 million to $316 million, a massive increase which was largely accounted for by the inclusion of $35 million insurance payout for Te Aroha in the 2011 accounts, the cost of the rebuild, $83 million of higher livestock and finished product inventory, and the funding of the annual loss.

A careful study of the annual reports sheds an interesting light on the company’s banking arrangements. Its 2010 report stated that its facilities had been renewed for two years till September 2012 and included $75 million for repayment of its SFF030 bonds. The 2012 report notes that its facilities expire in September 2012, hence the classification of all secured loans as a current liability, as was the case in the 2011 accounts.

I understand from chief financial officer Keith Winders that SFF has been operating on a temporary extension to its banking facilities since the end of September; he claimed this was quite normal because of the annual renewal arrangement with its bankers. However it appears unusual to me, because firstly SFF previously had a two year facility and secondly it can’t be ideal to carry $300 million of bank loans into the new financial year without negotiating secured banking arrangements. However, the directors must have received solid assurances of the company’s continued trading ability to allow it to continue to operate and incur liabilities.

Winders was also quite definite that there would be no significantly different terms and conditions attached to the new facility when finalised. This suggests the operating environment since September must be at least stable, although there is little evidence of an improvement in market demand, especially for sheepmeat which caused all the problems last season.

The only major improvement I can see is the reduction in lamb prices which have fallen from $140 to $90 in a year for a 17.5 kg lamb, but the season hasn’t yet got sufficiently into its stride for trading performance to have recovered many of last year’s losses.

What is absolutely crystal clear is that the banks will be watching their exposure to the industry like hawks and will demand some dramatic improvements for the rest of this season for which the critical period will be from January to May. Last season’s problem was that the price was much too high to start with and none of the processors was brave enough to lead the way to get it down when stock numbers were low.

I imagine none of the meat companies will have any appetite for chasing market share at the expense of margin this year and, if they do, their banks will be down on them like a ton of bricks. Farmers had a bonus last season, but there’s no point in hoping for a repeat any time soon. This presupposes that processing capacity is fairly well aligned with livestock volumes because the last thing the industry can afford is a procurement led price war.

Unfortunately my impression is that there is still excess capacity in the country, even after the closure of Mataura, but for the time being the companies will all be determined to rebuild their balance sheets. Past experience suggests industry peace will only last as long as necessary to repair the damage before the companies find the prospect of grabbing market share too hard to resist.

The only long-term remedy will be rationalisation of processing capacity and ownership, combined with seasonal supply commitment like the dairy industry. The banks are one of two critical factors in a change of this nature, but they would have to work together and accept write-offs in the interest of a lasting solution.

Farmers are the other critical factor, but the process of converting them to seasonally committed suppliers is a slow one and nothing will make this happen overnight.

The meat industry appears likely to be consigned to a further period of instability, but this season may give some indication of whether it is heading in the right direction.

This item has appeared at interest.co.nz and also at Allan’s own blog Barber’s Meaty Issues.

Meat industry leaders support TPP negotiations

Heads of various meat industry organisations  have shown their public support for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement negotiations underway in Auckland this week between eleven APEC economies.

They are amongst more than 50 business leaders from some of New Zealand’s largest and most successful companies and business organisations to have signed an open letter to Prime Minister John Key, underlining the importance of international trade and investment for New Zealand.

Among the signatories are Alliance chief executive Grant Cuff, ANZCO Foods’ managing director Mark Clarkson, Silver Fern Farms’ Keith Cooper, Greenlea Premier Meats’ Tony Egan and Sir James Wallace chairman of Wallace Corporation alongside Meat Industry Association chairman Bill Falconer and Beef + Lamb NZ Ltd’s chairman Mike Pedersen and chief executive Scott Champion.

“The signatories to the open letter represent a cross section across all major export sectors in New Zealand, including agriculture, forestry, fishing, horticulture, wine, manufacturing, technology and Maori business. Together they either directly employ, or their members employ, an enormous number of Kiwis,” says the chairman of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF), Sir Graeme Harrison.

“These business leaders welcome the TPP round taking place in Auckland this week and commend negotiators from the TPP economies for their efforts to conclude a future agreement which should bring benefits for all member economies”.

“The group is aware the negotiation poses challenges for New Zealand policy settings in a number of areas and that the negotiation is complex. We have confidence that Trade Minister Tim Groser and his officials will seek solutions that meet New Zealand’s national interests.”

“We see great advantages for New Zealand arising from a future agreement that is high quality, comprehensive and ambitious, one that eliminates trade barriers, lowers the cost of doing business and makes improvements to the way regional supply chains can link producers and consumers in the region.”

The open letter coincides with the launch of a new business-led initiative, Trade Works, a website (www.tradeworks.org.nz) to help Kiwis better understand the benefits of trade and investment for New Zealand, and understand the potential benefits of TPP.  Funding for the website has been provided by the NZ US Council and the website has been built with the support of thirteen business organisations representing the main export sectors.

“The Council and its partners see value from an effort to create a TPP which meets business and wider needs and reflects the way business is being done today and will be done in the future.  This will assist economic growth and job creation in New Zealand.  Our new website signals that we are also ready to participate with other members of civil society in a dialogue about how TPP can contribute to what it is best for New Zealand,” says the chairman of the NZ US Council, Rt Hon James Bolger.

 

Landcorp to return $20 million dividend to government

State-owned farm, Landcorp, has had a solid performance this year according to its latest accounts, says meat industry commentator Allan Barber.

Landcorp’s net operating profit of $27 million for 2011/12 was down on the previous year, but still a good performance, Barber says in a recent blog, adding that the SOE will pay a $20 million dividend to the Government.

During the year, it produced 10,176 tonnes of sheepmeat, 9,715 tonnes of beef and 2,258 tonnes of venison, as well as large volumes of milk solids, wool and timber.

Landcorp has a target of selling 80 percent of its lambs on fixed price contracts to Silver Fern Farms, Alliance and other meat companies and last year achieved in excess of 70 percent by this method, proving to its satisfaction that this provides less volatile and overall better market returns than spot trading. Lamb production is geared to meet specific weights and specification to fulfill meat companies’ contracts with northern hemisphere retailers.

As a founder partner with Silver Fern Farms and the Ministry for Primary Industries in FarmIQ Systems, Landcorp is committed to the development of integrated value chains from pasture to plate, designed to align New Zealand production and supply with consumer demand preferences. Twelve of Landcorp’s farms are now on FarmIQ’s farm management system.

The development which attracted the most publicity was the joint venture with Shanghai Pengxin to manage the 16 Crafar dairy farmers bought from the receivers and expected to get underway shortly. This fits in with Landcorp’s goal to increase its involvement in the dairy industry and a further “extension to Maronan Dairies in mid-Canterbury and further development Wairakei Estates near Taupo will contribute to this,” Barber believes.

Sheep and beef finishing has been boosted by the development of Cheltenham Downs in Manawatu and this has helped recovery from the drought years of 2007 and 2008, reports Barber.

Over the past 22 years, Landcorp has paid dividends to the government; therefore, New Zealand as a while, of nearly half a billion dollars.

“There’s no evidence that Landcorp is constrained by public ownership or that it would benefit from part privatisation,” concludes Barber.

Read the full blog item here at Barber’s Meaty Issues

This item has also appeared at www.interest.co.nz.

 

Omnishambles for lamb

‘Omnishambles’, is the word of the year, according to the Oxford Dictionary. Coined originally in a British TV political sitcom, and meaning ‘a situation that is shambolic from every angle’, at first sight it seems a good way to describe this week’s public showing for the sheepmeat industry. It also seems fitting as ‘shambles’ was the old Middle English word for the place where meat is butchered and sold.

High prices for lamb last year, caused in part by high schedule prices to farmers compounded by the ridiculously high NZ dollar and customer resistance to the resulting final prices, resulting in high stock levels have combined to produce announcements of combined losses of over $81.9 million by Alliance Group and Silver Fern Farms this week to add to the $605,000 loss announced in July by the ‘canary-in-the-mine’ Blue Sky Meats.

The situation was signalled earlier in the year, with price resistance being evident, but it wasn’t apparent, until the end of year accounts wash-up, just how bad the situation was. The fall-out continues. According to media reports, Alliance Group has also confirmed this week that it will make redundancy payments for up to 223 staff as a result of the closure of the Mataura sheepmeat processing plant, which it announced earlier this year. In addition, lamb schedule prices to farmers are said to be tumbling as processors react to the reluctance of European customers to pay the higher prices. Both Alliance and Silver Fern Farms have acknowledged they paid too much for livestock for too long.

The vultures gathered as the Meat Workers Union received plenty of coverage this week with its claims of ‘industry over-capacity’ and lack of leadership in the meat industry – sounding, perhaps, a little last century, but calling for government intervention. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Strong, but silent. Like a good southern bloke, the industry is taking its medicine. No industry comment has been made to date by any of the industry organisations or by Government. A response is probably brewing.

We know the meat export industry is resilient. It’s been around for 130 years after all. It’s also characterised by businesses: small-to-medium farming businesses supplying to mainly medium and large meat processing businesses producing product for, in some cases and from New Zealand’s perspective, gigantic global commercial concerns. All of which are subject to the current, and extraordinary, global economic pressures.

Contrary to MWU assertions, plenty is happening behind the scenes as a result of the 2010 Red Meat Sector Strategy, this year’s Riddet Institute’s ‘Call to Arms’, the Stanford University boot camp and no doubt also yesterday’s Pure Advantage Green Growth report will have sparked ideas. All of these work alongside and complement the Government’s  Business Growth Agenda. All highlight the importance of the primary sector to New Zealand’s future fortunes.

Stockpiles have already been worked through, new plants are being built, like Silver Fern Farms’ Te Aroha replacement plant for the one that burned down, and old ones adjusted to cater for the shifts in geographic livestock procurement, to adjust for capacity and cater for new customer requirements.

That was all last season. This is a new season. Lessons have been learned. As Allan Barber reported at the end of October, the 2012-2013 season was looking optimistic from the European perspective following the massive SIAL food fair in Paris. Add to that global meat demand is continuing its upward trend and the the fact that New Zealand meat has an exceptionally good reputation offshore and is the envy of many other producing countries, things ain’t looking so bad.

Omnishambles? I don’t think so.

 

 

Optimistic signs for coming season’s red meat trade

After some harrowing experiences last season for the meat industry, both processors and farmers, 12 months on things are looking up. This sense of optimism hasn’t yet been reflected in prices from the meat companies, but statements from those in the know strike a perceptibly more positive note, writes industry commentator Allan Barber.

Last year, the lamb kill was down by a million, there was drought in significant livestock areas, the dollar was too high and so was the procurement price for lamb. While beef remained relatively unaffected by the hype, the price really not changing much in a year, sheepmeat was a completely different story. Driven by the unholy combination of scarcity and tight shipping deadlines for the Christmas trade, the procurement price hit $8 a kilo and struggled to get down from that level.

The net result was too many buyers chasing too few lambs which were also allowed to put on too much weight. The export markets got a severe dose of indigestion and inevitably inventories built up fast on both sides of the world. All this time, the New Zealand dollar stayed obstinately high.

We will find out in November how badly this set of circumstances affected the profit and balance sheet performance of the meat exporters, although Blue Sky’s result to the end of March gave a pretty good indication of the effect of the first six months of the season.

Farmers won’t be as unhappy as the processors and exporters because they received more for their stock than it was worth and, although the lamb price has now dropped from $150 to below $100, this is still better than in many previous years. According to Keith Cooper in Silver Fern Farms’ (SFF) news release last week, he predicts the price will bottom out at about $4.80 per kilo after Christmas, equivalent to $90 for an 18.75 kg lamb. It will then rebuild to $5.80 or $109 by this time next year. Cooper has also said last year’s pricing got way out of kilter and won’t happen again this year.

Cooper’s optimism is based on favourable European buyer response in the last couple of weeks, culminating in the European food fair at SIAL in Paris last weekend. UK supermarket chains also seem to be positive about the forthcoming chilled New Zealand lamb season which starts with Christmas and continues until British lamb starts to appear in the chillers after Easter.

SFF’s news release provided an interesting, if slightly puzzling, piece of information which stated that Marks & Spencer had awarded their new contract for chilled lamb to Alliance, having dealt exclusively with SFF for five years, because “we could not offer Organic lamb to M&S.” As far as I can understand, and from memory, M&S have always insisted on knowing where their lamb came from, eventually insisting on identifying the lambs’ farms of origin and traceability, but organics have never been a requirement in the past.

Cooper subsequently confirmed to me that the M&S tender specified a proportion of organic supply as part of the supply which SFF couldn’t guarantee to fulfil.

Alliance suggested that it was not required to supply certified organic lamb under its new contract, although all suppliers involved belong to the company’s Hoofprint programme which measures their carbon footprint. In fact, it’s hard to see how enough organic lamb could be available, especially in the pre-Christmas period, while there is little evidence the UK supermarkets are willing to pay a sufficient premium for organic supply.

In contrast, beef prices appear set to continue stable, underpinned by drought conditions which have affected feed supply and cost in the USA; however, any weakness in the New Zealand dollar would inevitably flow through to better livestock prices, much as meat companies might want to hang onto any bonus they receive.

I imagine meat exporters will be keen to put what was reasonably torrid 2011/12 season behind them and bed in the capacity changes they have decided on, so their new season’s performance can benefit. Sheep farmers can’t aspire to the $150 lamb, but they can expect more certainty and consistency on which to base their farm business.

This article has also appeared at www.interest.co.nz.

No chance government will legislate to restrict meat capacity

Link

After the announcement the week before last of Alliance Group’s intention to close sheepmeat processing at its Mataura plant, Meat Workers Union representative Gary Davis called for the government to intervene. This was no doubt caused more by frustration over the loss of jobs than any realistic expectation that the government would interfere in a commercial situation.

Industry commentator Allan Barber argues at his blog that there is no chance government will legislate to restrict meat capacity.

Read more …