Omnishambles for lamb

‘Omnishambles’, is the word of the year, according to the Oxford Dictionary. Coined originally in a British TV political sitcom, and meaning ‘a situation that is shambolic from every angle’, at first sight it seems a good way to describe this week’s public showing for the sheepmeat industry. It also seems fitting as ‘shambles’ was the old Middle English word for the place where meat is butchered and sold.

High prices for lamb last year, caused in part by high schedule prices to farmers compounded by the ridiculously high NZ dollar and customer resistance to the resulting final prices, resulting in high stock levels have combined to produce announcements of combined losses of over $81.9 million by Alliance Group and Silver Fern Farms this week to add to the $605,000 loss announced in July by the ‘canary-in-the-mine’ Blue Sky Meats.

The situation was signalled earlier in the year, with price resistance being evident, but it wasn’t apparent, until the end of year accounts wash-up, just how bad the situation was. The fall-out continues. According to media reports, Alliance Group has also confirmed this week that it will make redundancy payments for up to 223 staff as a result of the closure of the Mataura sheepmeat processing plant, which it announced earlier this year. In addition, lamb schedule prices to farmers are said to be tumbling as processors react to the reluctance of European customers to pay the higher prices. Both Alliance and Silver Fern Farms have acknowledged they paid too much for livestock for too long.

The vultures gathered as the Meat Workers Union received plenty of coverage this week with its claims of ‘industry over-capacity’ and lack of leadership in the meat industry – sounding, perhaps, a little last century, but calling for government intervention. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Strong, but silent. Like a good southern bloke, the industry is taking its medicine. No industry comment has been made to date by any of the industry organisations or by Government. A response is probably brewing.

We know the meat export industry is resilient. It’s been around for 130 years after all. It’s also characterised by businesses: small-to-medium farming businesses supplying to mainly medium and large meat processing businesses producing product for, in some cases and from New Zealand’s perspective, gigantic global commercial concerns. All of which are subject to the current, and extraordinary, global economic pressures.

Contrary to MWU assertions, plenty is happening behind the scenes as a result of the 2010 Red Meat Sector Strategy, this year’s Riddet Institute’s ‘Call to Arms’, the Stanford University boot camp and no doubt also yesterday’s Pure Advantage Green Growth report will have sparked ideas. All of these work alongside and complement the Government’s  Business Growth Agenda. All highlight the importance of the primary sector to New Zealand’s future fortunes.

Stockpiles have already been worked through, new plants are being built, like Silver Fern Farms’ Te Aroha replacement plant for the one that burned down, and old ones adjusted to cater for the shifts in geographic livestock procurement, to adjust for capacity and cater for new customer requirements.

That was all last season. This is a new season. Lessons have been learned. As Allan Barber reported at the end of October, the 2012-2013 season was looking optimistic from the European perspective following the massive SIAL food fair in Paris. Add to that global meat demand is continuing its upward trend and the the fact that New Zealand meat has an exceptionally good reputation offshore and is the envy of many other producing countries, things ain’t looking so bad.

Omnishambles? I don’t think so.

 

 

Silver Fern Farms bullish in spite of $31 million loss, says Barber

Allan Barber has been speaking to Silver Fern Farms (SFF)’s chief executive Keith Cooper, following this afternoon’s announcement of a big loss for the co-operative for the year ending 30 September 2012. In his latest blog post, Barber reports finding Cooper bullish in spite of the loss.

Cooper confirmed the effect of lamb on the season’s losses, saying SFF had been comfortable with what it was paying for lambs price before Christmas. Market demand had suddenly stopped dead in February because of the market price and companies had all been hit by exposure to expensive stock, unable to reduce the price quickly enough. The net result was too much product going into overvalued inventory which resulted in a write-down of $25.6 million at balance date.

The company’s media release has highlighted the same reasons as Alliance for the loss, says Barber – unjustifiably high procurement cost, high dollar, sudden drop in market demand, inventory writedown – but made very positive reference to the future outlook. It has made significant new investments, including the Te Aroha rebuild, $8 million of new marketing initiatives and $4 million commitment to FarmIQ.

In the current year, SFF intends to invest a further $22.6 million in brand development, marketing initiatives and FarmIQ. According to chairman Eoin Garden, this “clearly demonstrates our confidence in, and commitment to, the growth path we have charted for our company” notwithstanding the poor performance during the year ended September.

High inventories are already being substantially sold down to a point where the company’s inventory level is already much closer to normal for this time of the year, lonely six weeks after balance date. As will be the case with Alliance the equity ratio will have already benefited from this.

The suspicion that SFF’s loss would not be a large as that posted by Alliance because of a greater proportion of beef in its kill proved to be correct. Nor did SFF have to take any plant closures on the chin. CEO Keith Cooper said the company’s footprint was consistent with livestock numbers and no further closures were under review.

In answer to a question about further industry rationalisation Cooper said SFF had already taken over two small companies, Frasertown and Wallace, and he was always in favour of aggregation. This invariably involved smaller companies being acquired by one of the big four. However it was ultimately up to farmers to decide on the industry’s structure, because industry rationalisation only lasted so long before a new processor emerged, which farmers would then typically support.

The general mood in the meat industry, confirmed by SFF, is positive for the new season. Procurement prices are aligned with the market, livestock volumes are stable, even recovering slightly, and capacity is fairly well balanced with throughput.

In conclusion, Keith Cooper said while 2011/12 was a poor year financially, strategically it was a progressive one. “2012 marked a continuation of our unwavering commitment to executing our Plate-to-Pasture strategy. This is a progressive and long term plan, which demands perseverance and determination, to ultimately generate sustainable value for our farmer-partners, by meeting the modern consumer’s requirements.”

This article appears also at Allan Barber’s Barber’s Meaty Issues. Read more …

Alliance posts $50.8 million loss for 2012

Alliance posted its annual result on Friday which was every bit as bad as predicted, a net after tax loss of $50.8 million for the 12 months ended September, writes meat industry commentator Allan Barber in his recent blog post.

The result included restructuring costs of $13.5 million associated with the closure of the company’s Mataura sheep and lamb processing operations which followed similar costs of $19.4 million the previous year from the closure of its Sockburn plant.

The 2012 performance saw a $77.8 million deterioration at the operating level compared with 2011 which, despite the $9 million net after tax loss, produced an operating profit of over $20 million.

Chairman Owen Poole expressed his disappointment at Alliance’s first operating loss for 20 years which he attributed to the decline in the sheepmeat market exacerbated by the high New Zealand dollar and the unsustainable level of procurement costs earlier in the season.

In the 2012 financial year, Alliance was hit by a triple whammy of lower sales and product prices, ridiculously high livestock procurement prices driven by short supply pre-Christmas, and the high dollar. The strength of the dollar was in no way reflected in a realistic procurement market. There is a question whether other processors were equally affected or saved to some extent by a higher proportion of beef processing in their operations. This will be at least partially answered when Silver Fern Farms releases its result later this month.

One factor which Poole omitted to cover in detail was the significant impact of the last two years on the balance sheet which he said was “still robust”. Unfortunately, the equity ratio has declined from 81.5 percent in 2010 to 51 percent two years later. Clearly, it cannot keep declining at this rate for much longer, so the company’s board will be hoping fervently that markets will recover and livestock supply at least stabilise in the immediate future.

Poole referred in his statement to the operational upgrades to Mataura’s beef processing, venison processing at Smithfield and rendering at Lorneville which, when combined with the savings from closures, will lead to much improved efficiencies and a significantly better result for the current year. Growth of lamb sales to China, sales to Brazil, the contract with Marks & Spencer and better market outlook encourage some optimism for this year.

Longer-term, the sheep population is unlikely to increase to any great extent, although productivity can be expected to improve with genetics, technology and lambing percentage increases. Whether this will be enough to maintain the industry in its present configuration is doubtful, because individual processors will continue to look for efficiency gains. Silver Fern Farms is already thought to be planning a nightshift at its Gore plant to take advantage of the closure of Mataura.

Meat industry capacity adjustments and potentially company ownerships can be expected to change in response to market conditions. No different from normal!

Allan Barber is an agribusiness and meat industry commentator. This article has appeared at www.interest.co.nz. He writes his own blog at Barber’s Meaty Issues.

Trading Among Farmers reality at last

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Trading Among Farmers is reality at last, writes agribusiness commentator Allan Barber in his latest blog post. Although a dairy topic, it’s an interesting read.

The day when outside investors can apply for units in the Fonterra Shareholders Fund to be listed on the NZX and ASX has arrived at last. Getting to this point has been a long and tortuous process during which Fonterra has consulted its members, finally gaining the required majority vote in favour of establishing Trading Among Farmers (TAF).

TAF will enable those Fonterra’s shareholders that wish to free up some capital to deposit shares in the fund, provided they retain enough shares to match their milk supply. These shares can either be bought by other shareholders who would like to increase their shareholding or exchanged for the units with rights to dividends and share price value changes.

Read more …

Optimistic signs for coming season’s red meat trade

After some harrowing experiences last season for the meat industry, both processors and farmers, 12 months on things are looking up. This sense of optimism hasn’t yet been reflected in prices from the meat companies, but statements from those in the know strike a perceptibly more positive note, writes industry commentator Allan Barber.

Last year, the lamb kill was down by a million, there was drought in significant livestock areas, the dollar was too high and so was the procurement price for lamb. While beef remained relatively unaffected by the hype, the price really not changing much in a year, sheepmeat was a completely different story. Driven by the unholy combination of scarcity and tight shipping deadlines for the Christmas trade, the procurement price hit $8 a kilo and struggled to get down from that level.

The net result was too many buyers chasing too few lambs which were also allowed to put on too much weight. The export markets got a severe dose of indigestion and inevitably inventories built up fast on both sides of the world. All this time, the New Zealand dollar stayed obstinately high.

We will find out in November how badly this set of circumstances affected the profit and balance sheet performance of the meat exporters, although Blue Sky’s result to the end of March gave a pretty good indication of the effect of the first six months of the season.

Farmers won’t be as unhappy as the processors and exporters because they received more for their stock than it was worth and, although the lamb price has now dropped from $150 to below $100, this is still better than in many previous years. According to Keith Cooper in Silver Fern Farms’ (SFF) news release last week, he predicts the price will bottom out at about $4.80 per kilo after Christmas, equivalent to $90 for an 18.75 kg lamb. It will then rebuild to $5.80 or $109 by this time next year. Cooper has also said last year’s pricing got way out of kilter and won’t happen again this year.

Cooper’s optimism is based on favourable European buyer response in the last couple of weeks, culminating in the European food fair at SIAL in Paris last weekend. UK supermarket chains also seem to be positive about the forthcoming chilled New Zealand lamb season which starts with Christmas and continues until British lamb starts to appear in the chillers after Easter.

SFF’s news release provided an interesting, if slightly puzzling, piece of information which stated that Marks & Spencer had awarded their new contract for chilled lamb to Alliance, having dealt exclusively with SFF for five years, because “we could not offer Organic lamb to M&S.” As far as I can understand, and from memory, M&S have always insisted on knowing where their lamb came from, eventually insisting on identifying the lambs’ farms of origin and traceability, but organics have never been a requirement in the past.

Cooper subsequently confirmed to me that the M&S tender specified a proportion of organic supply as part of the supply which SFF couldn’t guarantee to fulfil.

Alliance suggested that it was not required to supply certified organic lamb under its new contract, although all suppliers involved belong to the company’s Hoofprint programme which measures their carbon footprint. In fact, it’s hard to see how enough organic lamb could be available, especially in the pre-Christmas period, while there is little evidence the UK supermarkets are willing to pay a sufficient premium for organic supply.

In contrast, beef prices appear set to continue stable, underpinned by drought conditions which have affected feed supply and cost in the USA; however, any weakness in the New Zealand dollar would inevitably flow through to better livestock prices, much as meat companies might want to hang onto any bonus they receive.

I imagine meat exporters will be keen to put what was reasonably torrid 2011/12 season behind them and bed in the capacity changes they have decided on, so their new season’s performance can benefit. Sheep farmers can’t aspire to the $150 lamb, but they can expect more certainty and consistency on which to base their farm business.

This article has also appeared at www.interest.co.nz.

No chance government will legislate to restrict meat capacity

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After the announcement the week before last of Alliance Group’s intention to close sheepmeat processing at its Mataura plant, Meat Workers Union representative Gary Davis called for the government to intervene. This was no doubt caused more by frustration over the loss of jobs than any realistic expectation that the government would interfere in a commercial situation.

Industry commentator Allan Barber argues at his blog that there is no chance government will legislate to restrict meat capacity.

Read more …

Season just ended could produce messy results, says Barber

The season just ended could produce messy results, according to meat industry commentator Allan Barber.

The two largest processors and exporters, Silver Fern Farms and Alliance, have captured the headlines in the last couple of weeks.

Hot on the heels of its announced intention to close its sheepmeat chain at Mataura, Alliance has come out with an offer to suppliers of $20 in November per lamb contracted before the end of October.

From the other cooperative camp Keith Cooper, chief executive of Silver Fern Farms, last week sent an email out to suppliers which highlighted the disappointing financial result for the year ended 30 September because of the exchange rate and declining sheepmeat values in January and February not being reflected in procurement prices.

The final results will be declared in about two months when the market will be able to see just how disappointing the performance of the two companies actually was. Rumours of multi-million dollar losses have been prevalent, but rumour is just what they are until we see the actual figures. There is no doubt the problem has been almost entirely with sheepmeat in spite of the exchange rate, because exporters have been far more successful at reining in beef procurement costs.

It doesn’t take an Einstein to work out that the shortage of lambs for Mataura and the procurement competition are just two aspects of the same problem. The lowest national lamb kill for 51 years at 18.6 million, 15 percent down on the five year average will have made it very difficult for any company to get sufficient capacity utilisation to come close to making a profit. With Alliance’s largest sheep plant outside Invercargill, Mataura just over 50 km up the road was always under threat from declining volumes.

Blue Sky Meats, which balances in March, presaged the 2011/12 season’s problems in its declared annual result – a pre-tax loss of $604,000 and no dividend paid. The company termed this the most disappointing result in its history and drew attention to the excessive prices paid for stock through the turn of the year, both because of the high dollar and the drought in Southland.

It will be interesting to see how successful Alliance will be in securing committed lambs from suppliers stimulated by the $20 cash advance. Keith Cooper’s reaction was to say Silver Fern Farms had tried it six years ago with no success because some suppliers were affronted by the implication they were short of cash and didn’t want to close out their slaughter options. He prefers to rely on the company’s suite of supply plans rather than to repeat the cash in advance offer.

In his email to suppliers, Cooper sounds quite bullish about the new season’s prospects with a ‘fully configured operating platform’ and some exciting new marketing initiatives, even being bold enough to state that realistic livestock values are being established. If that is the case, it will either be because there’s enough livestock around to satisfy all processors or he is confident Silver Fern Farm’s overhead structure is competitive enough to guarantee filling their requirements.

Either way that is a big call in spite of the gains Silver Fern Farms has made in recent years, notably the closure of the Belfast sheep chain, improvements to its Finegand sheep processing and the rebuild of Te Aroha in the heart of the dairy farming Waikato/Bay of Plenty region. There are expected to be another 1.5 million lambs, but not enough to change processing dynamics much, while the market is another factor.

The meat industry is unique in that it has to compete at both ends of its supply chain. While livestock procurement has the most obvious impact on company profitability, demand from the market is also critical. Last season’s disappointments and losses have been as much about carrying too much inventory which the market couldn’t digest as the cost of the livestock to produce it.

When companies fail to manage both ends of the chain properly, things get messy. Just how messy they were last season will become clearer at the beginning of December when Alliance and Silver Fern Farms publish their results.

Alliance to transfer Mataura sheepmeat processing to Lorneville

Alliance Group announced this afternoon its intention to close its sheep and lamb processing operations at its Mataura plant and transfer them to its main Southland lamb plant at Lorneville, reports Allan Barber.

Mataura’s beef facility which has recently had a $15 million upgrade will continue to process beef with its remaining staff count of more than 400.

This decision is still up for final consultation with the workforce and union but, as always, this is a formality in as much as the decision has already been made. However, the media release indicates that other options could emerge during the consultation process. If the proposal remains unchanged, approximately 260 workers will be offered the chance to transfer to Lorneville with a further 65 engineering, administration and management staff also affected.

In a media release, Alliance’s chief executive Grant Cuff refers to the company’s status as one of Southland’s largest employers, emphasising its duty as a cooperative to its shareholders to operate the plant configuration most appropriate to the available stock numbers. Significant efforts had been made to retain complementary sheep, lamb and beef processing at Mataura, but declining stock numbers have made this unsustainable.

Cuff refers to the strength of Alliance’s balance sheet, which will enable it to withstand the challenge of a difficult period for the industry as a whole. He also says: “We are confident in the long-term outlook and these changes are essential to allow the company and its 5,000 farmer shareholders to benefit from the demand for New Zealand meat products in the global market.”

Today’s announcement confirms the rumours of industry rationalisation that have been circulating in recent days. The fact that Alliance has made the first move does not mean there won’t be further changes in due course affecting either the South Island’s other large cooperative Silver Fern Farms or ANZCO’s Canterbury Meat Packers operation near Ashburton.

However Alliance’s move will provide a small breathing space before further capacity or structural changes are necessary.

Meat Workers Union must report correct accounts by 12 October

The Registrar of Incorporated Societies, Neville Harris, has given the NZ Meat Workers Union (NZWMU) a deadline of 12 October to provide consolidated accounts for the 2011 financial year, reports meat industry commentator Allan Barber.

The union has been given more time to provide similar details for the previous five years which cover the period since the national union took over the branches which were previously Incorporated Societies in their own right, he writes.

Legally NZMWU is obliged to post its annual accounts by the end of April for the preceding 12 month period and these accounts should consolidate the annual balance sheets and profit and loss statements for the Canterbury, Otago/Southland, Wanganui and Aotearoa branches. However since 2006, the parent union has merely included the net capitation or member subscriptions transferred by the branches to the national union in its annual accounts without reporting total subscriptions, expenses, assets and liabilities.

The only accounts I could trace before 2006 were those of the Aotearoa branch, separately registered as an incorporated society which reported annually to the Registrar of Incorporated Societies. In its last annual report before it disbanded and joined NZMWU as a branch of the main union, it reported total contributions of $1.26 million, expenses of $1.2 million and total assets of just under $1.2 million including term deposits of $961k.

In 2010, NZMWU reported equivalent figures of $712,000 capitation fees, $656,000 expenses and total assets of $1.026 million. Aotearoa branch alone contributed capitation fees of $271,400, compared with the 2005 figure of $1.26 million, although it is understood the membership pre-merger comprised more than just meat workers.

In November last year, I asked the national union and its auditor about this large discrepancy and met a brick wall. I then wrote letters to the Registrar of Incorporated Societies and the Institute of Chartered Accountants asking why the NZMWU was allowed to misreport its total financial accounts.

The official legal position was obtained from the Ministry of Economic Development which administers the annual reporting by incorporated societies to the Registrar in accordance with the 1908 Incorporated Societies Act. The annual filing must be accompanied by a signed certificate which certifies the approval of the annual financial statement by members of the society at a general meeting. These statements do not have to be audited. However, the members must have the opportunity to view and question them and may also elect not to approve the statements, if they are deficient or fail to disclose relevant information.

Where a society has unregistered branches as part of its structure, each branch must supply full financial details for inclusion in the statement submitted to the Registrar. This procedure must follow the rules of the society at all times. But it was in following this procedure where there were serious gaps in NZMWU’s practice.

After following this matter up in the New Year with the Companies Office, I received an assurance that the Registrar would require the posting of correctly consolidated accounts. However, in contrast, the Institute was unimpressed by my persistence, told me the matter had been discussed by its Professional Conduct Committee which found nothing amiss with the auditing of the accounts and considered the matter closed.

So nearly a year after my first enquiry to the Registrar, providing the NZWMU complies with the request to provide correctly prepared accounts for the 2011 year by 12 October, it will be possible to see the actual state of the union’s finances including all branches. It will correct what appears to have been deliberate obfuscation of the NZMWU’s actual financial position.

Another area of doubt concerns the NZMWU’s justification for actually being a union at all, because this requires that it must be an incorporated society, which by definition must have a minimum of 15 members. It claims that it doesn’t have any members which all belong to the branches. However the branches are no longer registered as incorporated societies, hence the justification for not reporting to the Registrar.

When I started this investigation, Graham Cooke, now President of the NZMWU, accused me of talking a load of hogs..t and plotting the demise of unions in collaboration with my former colleagues at AFFCO more than fifteen years ago. To which I replied that I had nothing against a union’s right to represent its members, but I was also strongly of the opinion a union, like any other incorporated society which charges fees to its members in return for provision of services or facilities, has an obligation to comply with all its legal obligations.

It finally looks as though I will get my wish!

MIA signs biosecurity MoU

Last week, the Biosecurity Reform Bill passed into law. As it announced in June, the Government wants primary sector groups to participate in the Government Industry Agreement (GIA) for biosecurity decision-making and cost-sharing. The Primary Production Committee, which was responsible for the final draft of the Bill, received more than 40 submissions.

A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been drawn up describing how individual industry groups and Government will develop a business case for participation in joint decision-making and cost-sharing, writes Allan Barber. He finds that, despite initial caution, the Meat Industry Association, has signed the Government’s GIA proposal “provided the value proposition is acceptable.”

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